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PSG go into the trip to San Mamés as clear favourites, and a high‑scoring away win looks more likely than an upset. A realistic blogger-style prediction is Athletic Club 1–3 Paris Saint-Germain.
Athletic Club host PSG at San Mamés on Wednesday, 10 December 2025 at 20:00 UTC in the UEFA Champions League group stage. Athletic have been inconsistent in Europe with just one win from five group games, while PSG sit near the top of the standings after four wins from five.
Luis Enrique has openly acknowledged that PSG, as reigning European champions, are now a target for every opponent, who are “more motivated” to beat them, especially in intense atmospheres like San Mamés. Despite that, Opta’s model still ranks PSG among the top three favourites to retain the trophy, underlining the gap in overall quality between the sides.
Athletic Club have managed only one victory in their last five Champions League outings, reflecting their struggle to turn solid spells of play into results at this level. Recent home form has also been patchy, with dropped points and difficulty breaking down stronger visitors, which raises questions about whether they can keep PSG quiet for 90 minutes.
PSG, by contrast, have won four of their five Champions League matches this season and have been one of the most productive attacking sides in the competition. They have already scored 19 goals and generated 102 shots in the group, both competition‑leading figures before matchday six, and they are also on a four‑wins‑in‑five run across all competitions, including a 5–3 thriller over Tottenham.
Athletic under Ernesto Valverde usually blend high energy with structured pressing, looking to feed Guruzeta and the wide players quickly once possession is won. At home, they often start aggressively and rely heavily on crowd intensity, which could create early chances but also leave space if PSG play through the first line of pressure.
Luis Enrique’s PSG typically dominate the ball, using technical midfielders to control tempo and wingers to attack half‑spaces and full-back channels. With Desire Doué back in the squad after injury, Enrique has another dynamic wide option, though he has stressed the need to manage the youngster’s minutes carefully.
The clubs have met twice before in Europe, each winning their home game in the 2011–12 Europa League, which shows San Mamés can be a difficult venue even for elite sides. However, PSG’s current European record is far stronger; they have already set a Champions League-era mark with 13 wins in the calendar year 2025, underlining how comfortable they have become on this stage.
Enrique has repeatedly warned his squad against complacency, insisting that the match is not “won in advance” and that PSG must match Athletic’s intensity from the first whistle. That mentality, combined with their attacking form, suggests PSG will approach this as a statement game rather than a chance to rotate heavily.
Balancing Athletic’s home advantage, their physical, high‑tempo style and the intimidating San Mamés atmosphere against PSG’s firepower and superior depth, a competitive but ultimately controlled away win looks most plausible. Athletic have enough energy and quality to score, yet PSG’s attack has been too efficient to back against them finding the net multiple times.
Athletic Club 1–3 Paris Saint-Germain.
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